Published On: Tue, Oct 13th, 2020

US Election polls tracker: Biden storms to BIGGEST lead as Trump restarts campaign trail | World | News


President Donald Trump has returned to the campaign trail following his positive coronavirus result and brief hospital stay. Today Mr Trump will host a rally in the swing state of Florida, hoping to put his bout with coronavirus behind him in the return to election campaigning.

On November 3, incumbent Republican President Trump and his rival Democrat Joe Biden will go head to head at the polls.

The election campaign so far has been fraught with tension, over the Black Lives Matter movement, claims of voter meddling in the postal vote and the continuing coronavirus pandemic.

Now one set of odds has shown Mr Trump’s odds of winning the US Election have plummeted to the worst they have been for more than a year and a half today.

At the same time, Mr Biden saw his odds reach their all-time high.

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As of this morning, Mr Biden’s odds of being the next President of the United States stand at 4/9, indicative of a 69.25 percent chance.

However, Mr Trump’s, by comparison, slipped to 2/1 which carries an implied chance of just 33.33 percent.

As a result, Mr Biden’s chances of winning the election are now more than double those of the incumbent President for the very first time since the market opened.

According to Oddschecker, the last time the President’s odds were this poor was in March 2019 – but at the time it was unconfirmed if Mr Biden would secure the Democrat nomination.

Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom said: “The money has come Joe Biden’s way over the weekend and he’s improved to odds of 4/9 (69 percent) while Donald Trump is 9/4 (31 percent), which makes the Democrat twice as likely to win in November than the incumbent.

“The race is far from over and the Betfair Swing-O-Meter could still move at a moment’s notice given at this stage in 2016 Trump was even further behind when 11/2 (16 percent) to beat Hilary Clinton before producing a stunning comeback.”

The latest polls also place Mr Biden ahead, however by not as much as the odds.

According to a poll undertaken by USC Dornsife, Mr Biden was ahead with 51 percent of the vote, compared to Mr Trump’s 41 percent.

The poll was taken between September 28 and October 11 and asked 5,073 participants to choose who they would vote for come November.

Another poll showed Mr Trump’s disapproval rating had grown in recent days, with an ABC News/ Washington Post survey placing the President’s approval at just 44 percent.

In total 54 percent of the 1,014 respondents surveyed between October 6 and 9 disapproved of the President.

According to FiveThirtyEight’s simulation of the election, Mr Biden is favoured to win the election.

The data from the opinion polling site saw the election simulated 400,000 times to see who won most often, with a sample of 100 outcomes giving a likely scenario.

In this simulation, Mr Biden won 86 out of 100, while Mr Trump only won 13.

However, there are still three weeks to go until the election, with campaigning in key swing states crucial to the outcome.



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